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Western New York: Merge Bias in Risk Analysis - how schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation works

Thursday, February 23, 2012 from 5:30 PM to 7:00 PM (ET)

Rochester, NY

Western New York:  Merge Bias in Risk Analysis - how...

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Event Details

Tony Welsh, President of Barbecana Inc., will deliver this presentation.  His presentation will explain how schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation works, with particular reference to a phenomenon known as merge bias, which makes most deterministic project plans overly optimistic.  It will conclude with a demonstration of Monte Carlo analysis, which performs schedule risk analysis within Microsoft Project.

 

Tony Welsh was brought up in London and educated at Oxford and the London School of Economics.  He has lived in Houston since 1980.  He was one of the founders of Welcom and was personally responsible for the development of the algorithms in Open Plan (time analysis, resource scheduling, and risk analysis), as well as being heavily involved in the design of the company’s earned value tool, Cobra.  Welcom was sold to Deltek in March 2006.  Tony recently formed Barbecana and developed Full Monte, a Microsoft Project add-in which performs cost and schedule risk analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation.  His personal interests include racing and rallying classic cars.

 

Networking opportunities, refreshments and prize raffle will be provided.  See you there.

Space is limited. 

Admission is free!  

 

For more information about this MPUG chapter event, joining this chapter or MPUG Global, please visit us at www.mpug.com.  Visit our local MPUG Western NY Chapter to find out about future events.

 

 

 

Our local chapter Sponsor is:  The Project Solvers of America, Inc.

 

 

 

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When & Where



Microsoft Office Rochester
100 Corporate Woods
Rochester, NY 14623

Thursday, February 23, 2012 from 5:30 PM to 7:00 PM (ET)


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